The results of the Iraqi election: no one has exclusive win but one?!
Out of 328 seats they need coalition to form 164 plus one to
be able to form a new government. It is
therefore going to be somehow difficult negotiation between parties to get the
right number. It is necessary the party with
large number is the one that enable to do it.
The constitution states that the largest group is the one which can be
formed after the election results and not the one which gain the largest
votes. However the chance is more in favour of the largest
one.
The votes were Alkanon coalition (Almaliki) 92; Almowaten
29; Alahrar 28; Motahedon 23; Alwatniyah 21; Alkordistani 19; Democratic
Kurdistan 19; Alarabiyah 10; Altaghier 9; Kurdistani Naynawa 6; Fadhielah 6;
Islah 6; Diayala 5; Iaytlaf Aliraq 5; Islamy Kurdistan 4; Jamah Islamiyah Kurdistan
3; Naynawa watani 3; wafaa Anbar 3; Nokhab 3; Madani democraty 3; Sharaka
watnyia 3; Wahdat ibna Iraq 2; Wafaa Iraqi 2; Kafaat Jamahyer 2; Turkiman
Kurkuk 2; Rafidien 2; syriyani ashore 2; badel madni, tathamon, dawla adiela,
Khalas, Sadekon, Sabiyaa, yazidiyah, shabaki, Arab kurkuk, Salah aldeen,
karamah, Dawah dakhel and warkaa each one got 1 seat.
The main parties stated that they will refuse negotiating
with Almalki unless he accept nomination of other members to compete for the
first Minister who will do the government.
In politics every thing is possible.
One more thing is the absence of the president who was severely unwell
and for the last year spent time outside Iraq for treatment. It is the president who should call for the
formation of the parliament. How this is
going to be we have to wait and see in the next few days as there is a time
limit for all of that.
In fact the only winner in this election is the Iraqi people
who went and voted smoothly and without problems. Now the politicians should
respect those who elected them and speed up formation of government away from
personal interests by putting differences away for the best of the national
interests.
What will happen if Nori Almaliki wins the election?
This is unlikely however if the votes faked his party may
win the major seats in some of the provinces.
If this happened then there will be two possibilities each of them are
worse than the other for Almaliki. The
first option is that Almaliki may not be able to find anyone to do a coalition government
with him and this is the most likely position.
This option will lead to formation of coalition between factions
opposing Almaliki which are most of the other major groups. If Almaliki then insisted to stay in power he
will be arrested and brought to court not only for impending the country but
for all his corruptions. The other
option is that one or more than one group may accept to form coalitions with
him. If happened then there will be
serious consequences for Almaliki and may be even for Iraq as a whole. This may lead to revolution against Almaliki
or assassination or even coupe and the end of the process of all the parties
and the Parliament.
In conclusion there is no place for Almaliki in Iraq and he
should be put into a trail for the corruptions, insecurity, and other problems
happened during his 8 years in power. On
the other hand the constitution should be changed to allow any party only to
lead for two terms and not more at all.
