Air Strikes against Iran Nuclear Rectors are immanent
There are many indicators and ongoing activities between Israel and the USA from one side and other countries including Arab Gulf states about major strikes against Iran.
These strikes are not so far from the immediate future unless something extraordinary is happening to prevent it. The aim of these strikes is to destroy Iran capability to produce nuclear weapons at least in the near future. The second aim is to destabilize the Iranian regime. The last aim is something going on for many years and they are hoping for an uprising among the Iranian army or other forces to take control of power after the strikes.
The USA and Israel started to prepare the public in the Western countries for the strikes. They will try to reduce the number of civilian casualties however attacking nuclear facilities will result in dangerous consequences and huge number of casualties may occur.
On the other hand Iran may attack the Israeli nuclear facilities and targeting US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. They will certainly close the Gulf and attack the US warships. The US and Israel are wrong to believe that the strikes are short and finish because Iran may make it longer war. However Iran will be in a difficult position if it strikes back because if they continue the war for many days they will give the excuse to Israel and the US to finish what it was not finished in the first attacks. Iran may use other options such as Hizbullah to engage in a new war and they may attack the oil and Gas facilities in the Gulf.
Seeing all that there is one more surprise that may occur which is Iran may declare soon or after the attack that it is successful in obtaining nuclear weapons and it use them against Israel or the US bases and the US war-ships if the attack against it continued. Moreover, Iran may declare that it became nuclear power before the strikes and it will use this power if attacked. This last option may prevent Israel and US strikes and may lead to completely different situation.
In all circumstances it seems that the area is heading towards a new war which may take months rather than weeks or even years. If started it will lead to dangerous and unexpected consequences more than the previous two Gulf wars for the whole region. It may end the US presence in the Gulf forever. The oil prices and world crises from this will open another front in this war.
The Iraqi American agreement
The Iraqi American talks regarding an agreement about the US military presence in Iraq is considered the most important issue since the US invasion in 2003. About Iraq it is the most serious matter since the creation of the republic in 1958.
The existence of the US troops in Iraq under the UN orders will end this year 2008 and the Americans are looking for an alternative way to keep their troops in Iraq. They want to keep their influence in Iraq and the region. The aims of the American war in Iraq have been exposed day after day. One of the most important aims is about the oil which if its prices are going to continue to heave madly it may lead to many other wars. These wars are not necessarily similar to the Iraqi war but may take different shapes and agendas. China is becoming a giant consumer for oil as well as other countries such as India. And while Russia enjoying Siberian new oil fields the US is lacking behind and the Saudi oil is now levelling since 2004. Iran is not much as oil producer now and expected to finish as such in the foreseen future however it will become a nuclear state with nuclear producing arms. This is another reason why the US wants to stay in Iraq. It looks as if the war of George W Bush in Iraq is going to be the catalectic factor for the decline of America as a superpower. Iran will never become a superpower overnight but it will turn the equation in the region especially if the Americans are keeping bases in Iraq. The balance of power in the region is never going to be same as before. There are two factors here which are oil and wars and both will turn the world and its economy upside down if any kind of war occurs with Iran.
There are many other factors affecting the American Iraqi security agreement and all the Iraqis will be united against this agreement because it is against the sovereignty and integrity of their country. The US presence in Iraq should come fully to an end and after this the agreement can be negotiated and brought to the Iraqi people for a public and translucent vote about it. No single religious authority will welcome this agreement and if passed then Jihad (Holy War) against the US presence will be wide spread and supported by every one. It became so obvious that the US kept all the infrastructure destroyed and inflicted huge damage in Iraq over the last 5 years just to implement its agenda and one of them is this agreement.
The Iraqis are not against having a good and friendly relation with the USA but not to keep bases for military use. Instead of that they may think to arm the Iraqi forces and keep an agreement with Iraq as a state not as occupied state. This will lead to a better balance and will avoid heated wars in and outside Iraq. The Iraqis will not accept that their land and sky will continue to be without sovereignty as it is now. If so then the occupation changed from a known occupation into an on-going occupation with different name. The last will be even worse because under a known occupation every one expect that this will end at some stage but if the situation became official for long time and under different name then there will be no end and the people will have no choice but to resist.
All the Iraqis will not accept to let US bases exist in their land neither US air forces controlling their sky for long time. Relation between two armies (US and Iraq armies) is better and more acceptable than US army controlling Iraqi land and air. On the other hand we are not accepting US soldiers entering Iraq as arm forces as and when they wish. If this allowed then there will be no difference between this and the occupation but even worse.
The talks about long agreement should be between two states and in Iraq there is no full state now because the country is under occupation. On the other hand the US is using different kind of pressure such as controlling the Iraqi money to make the deal pass as it was reveal in the British media recently.
The US and the Iraqi government should make their talks transparent and the agreement should be signed with the Iraqi people and they should agree to it and not few ones in power.
