Bism Allah Alrahman Alrahem

The failure and decline of the superpowers

Power is very important for countries to become big and even more important to be regional or superpowers. However there are other elements which decide failure, success and continuity. Some of these elements are decisive and others are extremely important. The strength is not only needed in the military power but in other aspects like the economy. Above that knowledge and wisdom to put things in the correct place and appropriate time is a cornerstone. Nonetheless, even with all elements of strength naturally there is an aging process by which the superpowers decline. The declining process becomes quicker when superpowers find themselves involved in many issues that may exhaust their abilities. This and many other points no matter how trivial they are may occur suddenly and unexpectedly after which the decline of the superpowers will be spiral and inexorable. The history of mankind got many examples.

It is wrong to assume that after the decline and disintegration of the USSR the world is safer and better. Indeed the decline of the USSR was just the beginning of bigger changes yet to come. Some changes need years to happen but once reaching into the triggering point they spread quickly and decisively. The world in its political structure is so old and despite the disappearance of the other USSR it is remained on the same structure such as the UN. The USA was the other superpower when the USSR was intact few years ago. When the USSR failed the USA tried to involve itself in every aspect worldwide and on the same time kept the old international political structure to use it to pass its own agenda. In the last few years the USA find itself overburdened. Economically its involvement was so costly especially it has the largest poverty in the world. The USA failed in its war against terrorism which is indeed its own make at the first instance such as Osama Bin Laden and Alqaeda that created by the USA. Indeed the USA failure in Iraq brought to Iraq and the Middle East more terrorists and Alqaeda than before. The American failure in Iraq is so complex and not without great losses now and then. In the war of George W Bush the father on Iraq in 1991 he used the money of the Saudis and the Kuwaitis as well as the other oil puppet governments against Saddam regime which is another (made by the USA). In the second war in 2003 the son GWB used the same way but not without difficulty this time. After the war finished the USA allies started to pull one by one and those who stayed are now facing difficulties inside their countries. This is of course augmented by the failure of the security in Iraq and the on going civil war which only needs to be declared.

There are many other reasons indicates that the USA failed in Afghanistan and other parts of the world. Indeed it becomes so evident now that the failure of the USSR was only the beginning of the failure and decline of America. The last three years showed how clearly is this happening especially in the region of the Middle East and lastly in Lebanon. It is started to move downward so clearly in the last few months. The spiral movement of this decline may not happen tomorrow or after few years but is happening without any slightest doubt. This is again going to happen suddenly and unexpectedly. Iraq and its extremely bad and dangerous situation might be the triggering point especially if the USA entered into a war with Iran. There are many deadly scenarios that may happen. Iran possibly pushes the war out of its land. It can easily occupy Iraq or at least big part of it. The American troops in Iraq will not be able to defend themselves against the Iranian army without huge losses especially the terrorists in Iraq will have great opportunity to inflict huge damage and control larger areas. On the same time the other American bases like in Qatar will become easy targets for the Iranian advanced systems. This will not only inflame the region but will push the oil prices into unexpected levels. Iran will close the Gulf and oil will become a dangerous adventure from that region including the Saudi Arabia. Iran is counting down to be a regional nuclear superpower and the USA has no choice but to accept this. It is only after Iran is going to announce its first successful nuclear test, only then it is going to sit and talk with the USA but this time as a regional superpower. The deceptive promises for Iraq to be a model for the other region in democracy and good life not only failed but the reverse happening when the Iraqis are now seeing the neighboring states advanced quickly in knowledge, power, and progress while they are living under occupation and terrorism and at least one hundred of them killed daily by a known and an unknown factors. There is only one solution for the Iraqi issue which is by ending the occupation and pulling the USA troops and avoiding any conflict with Iran from Iraq now.

The world is now witnessing the failure and decline of the second superpower after the USSR and the next few years will be decisive. Whether this is going to be better or worse and to be seen by us or the next generations we have to wait and see but the world is certainly changing.

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