The first decisive democratic election in Iraq
It is only 2 days to go for the first election which will bring a 4 years term government to power.
The parties intensified their campaigns during the last few days which were not without accusation against each other.
We believe that there is not going to be a one party or list winning the majority of voices. The main parties will be close to each other however the present order will be maintained, that the Iraqi Coalition (Al-Hakiem) List will be on the top of the list. Alawi may not achieve the same voices like the previous election due to the number of scandals especially the disappearance of 1.3 billion dollars during his government. His Minister of defense accused of stealing the money that is in London now. Neither of these two groups got a clear program for the security, services, oil, economy, education, health and other matters.
The Kurdish parties will achieve more or less the same voices as in the previous election and will play similar role in the formation of the government. However there are some small parties that will have a say in the post-election government.
There were some pre-election sample assessments all of which indicated that the Iraqi Coalition will get between 58-75% of the votes in the southern nine provinces and about 55% in Baghdad while the rest of the provinces will vote for different local parties apart from the 3 Kurdish provinces which will vote for Kurdish Alliance with majority.
Considering the provinces as individual we predict that it will be as follows taking in consideration the main parties which will achieve more than 50% of votes as follows:
Basrah----------- Iraqi coalition with minority
Omara -----------Iraqi coalition with majority
Nasriyah ---------Iraqi coalition moderately
Samawa ----------Iraqi coalition moderately
Diwaniyah --------Iraqi coalition with minority
Najaf -------------Iraqi coalition with majority
Kerbala ----------Iraqi coalition with majority
Hila --------------Iraqi coalition with minority
Kut --------------Iraqi coalition moderately
Baghdad ---------Iraqi coalition with minority
Diyala -----------Iraqi National coalition (Alawi) with minority
Tikret -----------Local parties with majority
Ramadi ----------Iraqi Islamic party with minority
Kurkuk ----------No big winner
Mosel ------------No big winner but possible Iraqi National Coalition
Irbil -------------Kurdish coalition
Solimaniyah -----Kurdish coalition
Dohok -----------Kurdish coalition
Most important is for the election to occur and the votes respected with a civilized way.
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