The Iraqi Election
It is only few weeks to go for the first democratic election to choice a government and national assembly in Iraq.
It is expected that the terrorists will also intensify their attacks and efforts to ignite a civil war especially between Sunnis and Shiites. There are recently some fighting though on small scale but it happened between the Sunnis and Shiites in Diyala province and East Baghdad. More than 30 people killed in a Shiite city in Al-Howieder in Diyala after a car attack in an open market.
The political process is on the move and all the political parties and groups submitted their lists to the Electoral Commission office.
There are 228 political parties in 21 coalitions however the main coalitions are not more than 5. The rest are small parties and not expected to gain much votes. Among the main coalitions is that of Abd-Alazizi Hakiem (the Iraqi Coalition) which includes Al-Jafari party and now included Mouqtada Sadar group and 14 other small parties. This coalition is not expected to achieve the same level of support as before due to many reasons. One of the main causes is the weak achievement in the level of the services and reconstructions in addition to the security issues. On the other hand is the spread of the corruption not only inside the government offices and ministries but inside the coalition party itself. Some of its members pulled from and make their own election lists. Indeed some of those who were pulled are themselves among the corrupted members or the weak in the badly performing ministers.
Iyad Alawi coalition (the Iraqi National List) tried its best to return to power. He makes coalition with many other parties like the Iraqi Communist party and Al-Bachachi party which is a Sunni one. This coalition may gain more voices but not enough to make him on the top of the list or exceeding Al-Jafari-Hakiem list. However it may achieve better.
The third list is the (Kurdish Coalition) which is expected to gain fewer voices this time due to the withdrawal of the (Kurdstan Islamic party).
The Sunni parties are entering this election in much better way. They got 2 main coalitions. The (Iraqi Agreement Front) which include the Iraqi Islamic party and the National Dialogue Group plus the Conference of the Sunnis. They entered the election this time in a much better way. They expected to gain better voices especially in the Sunni provinces as well as more seats in the next National Assembly. They may be able to play a major role in the formation of the next government which will certainly be a government of coalition.
The expected results will be of no favor for any of the above lists. The next government is going to be certainly a coalition one. None of the mentioned list will achieve a majority making them able to form a government by themselves. However the coalition this time may not be between the Kurds and one of the top list groups. It may be between two or three coalitions or even the small parties may play a role to balance the coalition like what is happening in Israel. Certainly the Sunni groups are coming as a major player this time and they may influence the next coalition government strongly.