The Iraqi Election
It is only few weeks to go for the first democratic election to choice a government and national assembly in Iraq.
It is expected that the terrorists will also intensify their attacks and efforts to ignite a civil war especially between Sunnis and Shiites. There are recently some fighting though on small scale but it happened between the Sunnis and Shiites in Diyala province and East Baghdad. More than 30 people killed in a Shiite city in Al-Howieder in Diyala after a car attack in an open market.
The political process is on the move and all the political parties and groups submitted their lists to the Electoral Commission office.
There are 228 political parties in 21 coalitions however the main coalitions are not more than 5. The rest are small parties and not expected to gain much votes. Among the main coalitions is that of Abd-Alazizi Hakiem (the Iraqi Coalition) which includes Al-Jafari party and now included Mouqtada Sadar group and 14 other small parties. This coalition is not expected to achieve the same level of support as before due to many reasons. One of the main causes is the weak achievement in the level of the services and reconstructions in addition to the security issues. On the other hand is the spread of the corruption not only inside the government offices and ministries but inside the coalition party itself. Some of its members pulled from and make their own election lists. Indeed some of those who were pulled are themselves among the corrupted members or the weak in the badly performing ministers.
Iyad Alawi coalition (the Iraqi National List) tried its best to return to power. He makes coalition with many other parties like the Iraqi Communist party and Al-Bachachi party which is a Sunni one. This coalition may gain more voices but not enough to make him on the top of the list or exceeding Al-Jafari-Hakiem list. However it may achieve better.
The third list is the (Kurdish Coalition) which is expected to gain fewer voices this time due to the withdrawal of the (Kurdstan Islamic party).
The Sunni parties are entering this election in much better way. They got 2 main coalitions. The (Iraqi Agreement Front) which include the Iraqi Islamic party and the National Dialogue Group plus the Conference of the Sunnis. They entered the election this time in a much better way. They expected to gain better voices especially in the Sunni provinces as well as more seats in the next National Assembly. They may be able to play a major role in the formation of the next government which will certainly be a government of coalition.
The expected results will be of no favor for any of the above lists. The next government is going to be certainly a coalition one. None of the mentioned list will achieve a majority making them able to form a government by themselves. However the coalition this time may not be between the Kurds and one of the top list groups. It may be between two or three coalitions or even the small parties may play a role to balance the coalition like what is happening in Israel. Certainly the Sunni groups are coming as a major player this time and they may influence the next coalition government strongly.
The Iraqi constitution passed
The Electoral Commission officials announced the final results which passed the constitution by majority of Iraqis.
The Yes votes were more than 70%.
All the Southern and Northern provinces voted yes including Baghdad and Diyala with majority.
The only two provinces voted No by more than 66% are Tikrit which is Saddam’s birth place and Ramadi which is dominated by the terrorists.
Mosel voted for yes by 45% and no by 55%. This is not enough to reject the constitution because they need three provinces to vote no by more than 66% for each.
This is a real democracy by which the constitution passed.
Next will be a general election for Assembly and government for a term of 4 years on 15th Dec 2005.
Results of votes for the Iraqi Constitution
The following are percentages (%) of Yes and No results of votes for the constitution announced today by the High Electoral Authority
The results came closer to our expected analysis before. The results of another 5 provinces are yet to be announced. Ramadi certainly expected to be No. Among the other 4, Mosel votes will be decisive. According to the preliminary count more than 50% in Mosel counted as Yes. If 3 provinces voted by No for more than 66% of votes in each one, the constitution will be rejected. This is impossible even if Mosel counts revealed no it will not be more than 66%, however Mosel is expected to be Yes in about 55%.
Syria on the verge of new era
The death of the interior Minister of Syria who was the main Syrian figure directly involved in Lebanon for long time is of no doubt related to the ongoing investigations about the Syrian role in the death of Rafiq Hariri.
Irrespective of whether the death was by suicide or some one kills him the investigations of Hariri’s death should be extended to include the death of the Syrian Interior Minister.
It has been shown for long time now that Syria knows only one language which is to kill its opponents and to create a scene of bloodshed both in Iraq and Lebanon as well as against its own people. In Iraq they train, support, recruit and help the terrorists. They set out camps for such training and provide multiple logistic supports. The evidence given by those who were captured including Syrian officers needs no explanation. However they deny it on the highest level and blamed the Americans of not cooperating with them like in discussion or in providing equipments to facilitate observation of the borders.
In Lebanon there were many deaths among Syrian opposition figures since the murder of Hariri. Many Lebanese were forced to leave for more safe regions like Paris including the sons of Hariri himself.
It is so surprising that the Syrian Baath regime digging for itself a big and deep hole. On the other hand the Syrian people are now awaiting the moment to escape from the long-lasting dictatorship regime.
The above article was written about few days ago and not published due to a priorty for other matters. Today the report of Detlev Mehlis the chief investigator in Rafiq Hariri assassination was handed over to the UN. Not surprisingly at all that the report strongly indicated that top ranking Syrian officials were involved in the assassination. But surprisingly that among those involved were the brother and brother in law of Bashar Al-Asad the president of Syria. He denied in a CNN interview any personal or even low level links. It is very unlikely that if his two brothers were involved that he didn’t knew about it.
If the report is true and proved correct, what will be the position of such a regime in the world and who would be able to sit and make deals with it unless they are alike.
The Trial of the Century
The reason we chose this title for the trial of Saddam Hussein is not because of he is important person but because of the magnitude of his crimes. He and his regime committed the worst crimes in the recent history of mankind. He used countless and unprecedented means to perpetrate his crimes. On the extent these crimes were not limited against the Iraqis but it extended to involve other peoples in different countries, the environment, and more over it is continued until now.
It is wrong to start with a crime which happened in Dujial in a short period of time. Though it was barbaric crime but it is a drop in the ocean. Saddam and his regime committed crimes against humanity not only by killing millions of people but by creating a cascade of evil events which will stay with us for long time to come. The scars that this regime left will never ever heal by a trial or even the most sever punishments they deserve. However it is good to see the criminals behind the bar after so long time.
Compared to what they did for their victims from tortures, humiliations, executions, and rapes, they received luxury reception in today’s court. Saddam when asked about his name tried to deliver a speech to the world. He refused to recognize the Court and considered himself as the legitimate president. The only time that he gave up and appeared frightened and collapsed is when the Prosecution brought the charges against him.
In all circumstances the trial showed two major things. First the new Iraq is moving forward towards the state of law and the second is that the trial of Saddam is an example for all those who govern their people with fear and dictatorship to learn the lesson.
The Results indicate YES vote for the Iraqi constitution
The preliminary results from different sources indicate the following:
The nine southern provinces from Basra to Hila voted between 75-95% by yes.
Baghdad region voted by 65-75% yes.
The three northern Kurdish provinces voted by 70-80% yes.
Kurkuk and Diyala voted for 60-65% yes.
Ramadi is gloomy but expected to vote for no.
The birth place of Saddam Tikrit (Salah-aldeen) voted by 75% for no.
The constitution will be rejected if the majority of votes rejected it which is according to the above results is impossible.
The only other way by which it may be rejected is if more than two thirds of the votes in three provinces or more vote for no. This option is very unlikely. Even taking Tikrit votes in account this will need at least another 2 provinces to say no by more than 66%. Even if Ramadi achieved this is not enough. Mosel votes were 643,000 from which until today we got the results of 419,000 ballots counted. Out of this 419,000 there is 75% voted yes. Therefore even if the rest are all no, which is impossible, the final results will not be enough to reject the constitution.
Based on this we can say congratulation for the Iraqis with a big YES for the constitution which is passed.
Over all how nice it is to be free and votes then calculate like the other civilized nations and not 99.999% yes for one person or one family under the barbaric dictatorship regimes.
Historic Day in Iraq
Voting by Yes or No for the constitution is in progress now in all parts of Iraq. The number of voters exceeded the expected limits especially in areas like Mosel which had low turn out in the last election. Voting stations received large numbers in the Sunni areas including Ramadi, Falluja and Diyala.
No major problems until now and the voters are free to cast their votes.
This is the first time for the Iraqis to vote for their own constitution. It is indeed the first time in the Middle East especially the Arab countries.
We expect a big YES for the constitution possibly around 80%. This YES is a big bullet in the head of the terrorism.
This is a historic day and the political process moving forward in spite of the efforts of all of the evils to disable or delay it.
A Step forward for democracy in defiance of terrorism
Today's agreement of the main political parties including the Iraqi Islamic Party on the draft of the constitution has been described by some as a historic day.
The agreement came after amendment of some of the points which raised differences between the various political groups. On the other hand it left the doors open for farther changes after discussion with in 4 months after the new election by the end of the year.
The Iraqi Islamic party represents large number of the Sunni Arabs in Iraq and this will push large number to join the political process.
This is a very good achievement indeed and a big blow on the face of the terrorism. It came by the time the blood shed continued in Iraq daily. The latest is the killing of more than 30 Iraqis in a centre for army recruitment in Telafar today by a suicidal thug.
The big blow on the face of terrorism will be on Saturday 15 Oct 2005.